This article is by John Stapleton – entrepreneur and investor.
This is the time of year when we simultaneously look back and take stock of the year we’ve had and look forward and try to anticipate the year incoming. Mostly, a new year is met with anticipation, often optimism. It’s simply human nature.
Possibly because we’ve now had 3 consecutive years where the sentiment has been “good riddance” to the outgoing year, we’ve become jaded at the prospects of a fourth. In any event, this time, there’s more than enough pessimism to go round.
We’re likely to have a strong Christmas – British retailing is reporting an up-tick in demand (compared to November), but expectations are that this will be significantly reversed in early 2023 as rising cost of living pressures take further hold.
CBI Economist Martin Sartorius believes that any festive cheer will be short-lived. “Retailers are bracing themselves for chill winds that will blow through the sector this winter, with consumer spending set to be hit hard by high inflation.”
This sentiment is affecting the investment community also – particularly investment in early stage businesses or those which have not yet broken even (and need shareholders funds to survive/ fund growth). The pure start-up scene remains interestingly buoyant – due to certain mitigating circumstances. But is interesting to see what is happening to businesses which are still early-stage, but have moved into scale-up mode.